En la primera parte del año, el consumo masivo cayó 7%, según datos de la consultora Scentia. Faltan seis semanas para las elecciones primarias del 12 de septiembre y el poder adquisitivo sigue sin reaccionar. En este contexto, el Gobierno se aferra al salvavidas de Ahora 12, el programa con el que busca reactivar las ventas y que quieren extender a partir de este sábado.
El 31 de julio vence la versión actual de Ahora 12 y sobre la secretaria de Comercio Interior que dirige Paula Español se desata el lobby de quienes quieren subirse a este barco y el rechazo de los que dicen que ya no hay margen para seguir con este programa.
Del lado de los que comparten la postura del Gobierno y quieren un Ahora 12 recargado incluso con mayores plazos están los comerciantes y los fabricantes locales de celulares, indumentaria y calzado.
Entre los que se oponen a la extensión del programa aparecen los bancos que protestan por la imposición de tener que seguir ofreciendo financiamiento a tasas negativas en un contexto en el que sus ganancias están en el piso más bajo de los últimos 10 años.
Un reciente informe de la consultora Econviews muestra que con las tasas máximas para tarjetas de crédito que fijo el Gobierno, más la obligación de dar préstamos al sector privado, las ganancias de las entidades financieras es la menor desde 2011.
Por estas razones los bancos dicen que no hay margen para seguir con este tipo de programas, como el Ahora 12. Pero a la vez reconocen que la suya es una queja que cae en tierra árida, ya que el Gobierno les deja poco espacio de negociación.
A diferencia de los defensores del programa que piden a viva voz que se los incluya, tal como hace la Cámara de Comercio o AFARTE, los bancos no quieren levantar el tono. “Nosotros le decimos al Gobierno lo que ellos ya saben: no se pueden mantener .y menos extender- estos planes de financiación con estas tasas. Pero no obtenemos respuesta“, deslizan en una entidad privada.
Hasta ahora el Gobierno viene dando señales claras de que la tasa de interés no se toca. La tasa de los plazos fijos en pesos con un rendimiento promedio del 37%, lleva 11 meses perdiendo contra los precios. Pero pese a que la inflación avanza al 50% anual, el equipo de Miguel Pesce mantiene la tasa de referencia en 38%, con la mira puesta en incentivar la reactivación económica que demora en aparecer.
El programa fija límites a los intereses que pueden cobrarse. Para los pagos en 3 cuotas el tope es 4,06%; en 6 cuotas, 7,27%; en 12 cuotas, 13,90% y en 18 cuotas, 20,78%. Desde los bancos plantean que si el programa sigue al menos deberían reajustarse estas cuotas.
En rigor, el programa Ahora 12 incluye hasta 18 cuotas en la versión actual, aunque solo en algunos productos puntuales. Para congraciarse con el electorado, una parte del equipo económico busca llevarlo a 24 cuotas o incluso más allá. Pero otros funcionarios advierten que ampliarlo a más de 18 meses sería un esfuerzo estéril. Con los salarios deprimidos estos anabólicos proconsumo ya no funcionan como antes. ?
Entre enero y abril de este año las ventas con este programa alcanzaron los $ 232.407 millones. Ahora 12 tuvo un pico en marzo cuando la facturación llegó a los $ 70.000. Pero en abril, último dato conocido, la facturación cayó 22%, a $ 54.000 millones. Por eso algunos funcionarios advierten que hay cierta fatiga en el programa, en el que ya no basta con aumentar los plazos.
Puja por celulares
Las empresas que producen celulares en el país ven en este programa una alternativa que los ayude a salir del pozo. Es que las ventas se hundieron en los últimos años. De la mano de la suba de los precios y la caída del poder adquisitivo el mercado se desplomó y cayó 37%.
Con este panorama AFARTE, la cámara que agrupa a los fabricantes locales, hizo un pedido concreto a la secretaría de Comercio Interior para que incluya a los celulares de precios bajos –menores a $ 50.000– dentro de la renovación de Ahora 12.
Como el Gobierno los dejó afuera de Ahora 12, las compañías ofrecen planes de financiación propios. Además, sellaron un acuerdo para que los productos que 25 compañías fabrican en Tierra del Fuego mantengan los precios sin cambios hasta fines de octubre. Esto alcanza a celulares, televisores, aire acondicionados y microondas.
Ese acuerdo tenía una cláusula en la que el Gobierno se comprometía a volver a meter a los celulares de gama baja dentro de Ahora 12 “en cuanto las circunstancia los permitan”. Para los fabricantes, este es el momento adecuado. Para el Gobierno, los tiempos son otros.
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