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La MGP sin brotes verdes en el segundo semestre: muy complicada

La gestión de Guillermo Montenegro, atravesará un segundo semestre cargado de complicaciones, más allá del curso de la pandemia y sus graves consecuencias.

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Una ansiedad galopante por la suerte electoral del oficialismo local, debido especialmente a la magra o casi inexistente mayoría legislativa, que debe por lo menos mantener en este turno electoral, luego de la paridad registrada en las banca en 2019 con el Frente de Todas. La renovación es clave y hasta puede ser un punto de inflexión.

Si no se llega a ese objetivo de mínima, los gestos se vuelven adustos porque los sobresaltos estarán a la orden del día. No hay tregua posible, será sin cuartel, un clima que roza la demonización de  los actores y del cual no escapará nadie.

En Yrigoyen y Luro deberán atender demandas imposibles de cumplir y recrudecerá el ritmo de protestas y manifestaciones, algunas legítimas, y otras,  producto de activistas políticas. Habrá que estar atentos a quienes la “balconean” y hasta dónde llegan los compromisos políticos que militan el oficialismo. En esa alianza también hay internas, palaciegas y también cuerpo a cuerpo.

Las piezas están inestables y si bien la preocupación cala puertas adentro, en esta curiosa administración debido a su armado y sus aliados circunstanciales, el agobio no tarda en aparecer ni bien se peinan fino los aspectos más importantes de esta gestión municipal.

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Ni estatuas ni me puse la Astrazeneca ni donación de aguinaldos ni zoom con vecinos preocupados por la zona roja, con lo cual se entretiene a la tribuna. Ni tampoco las especulaciones políticas, porque nadie sabe dónde está parado con la actualidad de más internas que participantes.

La bulla política tiene como asumida que dónde hay 2 radicales hay una interna. La actualidad desborda cómodamente esa presunción instalada. ¿Quién tiene la lapicera? ¿Hay PASO? Hoy todo se reduce a un cronograma de incierto cumplimiento. La política domina el centro de la escena.

El acuerdo salarial de Camioneros (45 % más bonos y revisión en febrero) y la caída del arreglo de la Asociación Bancaria en el 29 %, ya indican claramente que están atrasados en un 50 %. La inflación prevista del 29 % llega al 45 %, pero puede trepar a 50 % cuando se aborda a fondo la discusión salarial.

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Esto repercutirá en el cierre del acuerdo paritario, que se evaporó antes de firmarse con el Sindicato de Trabajadores Municipales. Ya lo adelantaron en el Congreso Nacional Cristina Fernández y Sergio Massa, que cantaron el 40 %. Dinamita pura.

También habrá de impactar en el presupuesto municipal, el comprometido aumento del 20 % en el contrato de recolección de residuos, (al margen de la re determinación mensual) que además deberá absorber el 45 % de incidencia en el costo de la mano de obra, que acaban de arreglar Hugo y Pablo Moyano.

El aumento de tasas anual aprobado en torno al 25 %,  está en el orden del 50 % de la inflación proyectada para fines de 2021. No cierran las cuentas.

Y el cálculo es saber cuál será el mes donde queden exhaustas las arcas de la Tesorería, que ya viene observando con mucha preocupación cómo se disparan las puntas de ingresos y egresos, en especial en algunos rubros de cortesía.

El gobierno de Guillermo Montenegro venía disfrutando de una especie de paz cambiaria, como se denomina a una estabilidad precaria que no permite el aumento del dólar. En el ámbito de la municipalidad en cambio ha sido un estado de gracia, que comienza a dar signos de agotamiento con las urnas esperando en noviembre. No se arregla donando 15 aguinaldos ¿o será sólo un pre anuncio?

El peor de los escenarios, sin sogas de auxilio con Balcarce 50 y sin acuerdos de descubiertos en el Banco Provincia, que dependen del humor de Axel, quien no tienen el mejor ánimo con los gobiernos PRO, justamente.

Jorge Elías Gómez

jgomez@mdphoy.com

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