El ex viceministro de Economía kirchnerista Emmanuel Álvarez Agis advirtió ayer que si se sigue a este ritmo de inflación y emisión monetaria, los billetes de $1.000 se usarán para “empapelar las paredes”, y consideró “inviable” seguir manteniendo una brecha cambiaria que ronda el 90%.
El economista advirtió, además, que la cotización oficial del tipo de cambio, en torno de los 100 pesos, “se sostiene con muletas, que es el control de cambios”.
“Si no le damos una solución razonable a la devaluación del peso y a la inflación, vamos a usar los billetes de $1.000 para empapelar paredes”, alertó Alvarez Agis, quien se viene mostrando muy crítico sobre la marcha del plan económico.
Número dos de Axel Kicillof en el Palacio de Hacienda hasta el final del gobierno de Cristina Kirchner en 2019, Alvarez Agis dijo que “hasta que no podamos dar la certeza de que sostenemos el tipo de cambio fijo por un tiempo largo, como para que eso ordene el proceso inflacionario, esa incertidumbre va a continuar”.
Dijo que esa incertidumbre “se traduce en lo obvio: los argentinos van a comprar muchos dólares, como en las últimas 10 elecciones”, ante los comicios legislativos que vienen.
Alvarez Agis consideró auspicioso que el Banco Central esté un “poco mejor parado después de la situación compleja del año pasado”, aunque advirtió: “Necesitamos US$ 20.000 millones más” en las reservas de la autoridad monetaria, que rondan los US$ 42.500 millones.
Devaluación.
“Estamos en una crisis que tiene que ver con una devaluación que no termina, que empezó en 2018 con un dólar a $ 17, y que desde entonces, hoy con un dólar a $ 96 o $ 97, nunca tocó un
techo”, advirtió el director de la consultora PxQ.
Álvarez Agis explicó que se está “mirando al Banco Central con un ojo todo el tiempo, porque hay pocos dólares”, y señaló que la actual cotización oficial de 97 pesos “se sostiene con muletas, que es el control de cambios”.
En declaraciones radiales, consideró “necesario apostar a tener un solo tipo de cambio, porque tener dos, con una brecha del 80% o 90%, hace que el país sea inviable”.
“Lo que se necesita es una decisión política, mucha valentía y mucho de suerte, pero tenemos que enfrentarlo” para poder estabilizar nuestra finanzas”, advirtió.
Reconoció que recorrer ese camino es “muy complejo”, pero consideró que “vale la pena hacer el intento, porque tenemos que conseguir tener un solo tipo de cambio, no dos”, porque la brecha cambiaria hace que el país sea “invivible”.
Al ser consultado sobre si eso no llevaría a una devaluación que agravaría la inflación, consideró que “no necesariamente, eso ocurre cuando se implementa mal”.
“No hay economía que funcione, no hay plan de inversión que puedas pensar de acá a las elecciones. Tenemos que alargar el horizonte de planeamiento, es la única forma de despejar esta
incertidumbre”, señaló.
Sostuvo que no se ahorra en pesos porque “desde la salida de la convertibilidad hay un quilombo que antes era cada diez años, luego fue cada cuatro, y ahora es cada dos”.
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